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Vantage Point
Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.
TOPIC: UNITED STATES
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) supports the 2026 US outlook, but is the optimism for a capex boom premature?
December 11, 2025
Some economists are forecasting a surge in investment driven by the bill's tax incentives (permanent rate cuts, restored expensing). To be sure, expensing does increase the after-tax return on new investments and will support overall growth in 2026. Expectations for the OBBB’s impact on 2026 GDP range from 0.4 to 1.1 percentage points. However, as we look under the hood, the transmission mechanism from tax cuts to organic GDP growth appears clogged, particularly in the current environment. We expect growth to land on the lower end of that range.
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China and the US prepare for the next round
July 31, 2025
China is expanding legal measures in response to broader U.S. trade restrictions, targeting firms that comply with U.S. policies. This strategy aims to shield its slowing economy while increasing risks for foreign companies caught between both sides. Despite some easing of tariffs, the U.S. and China remain on divergent paths, with the U.S. pushing for strategic decoupling and China reinforcing its deterrents.
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