Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

TOPIC: ECONOMY

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) supports the 2026 US outlook, but is the optimism for a capex boom premature?

December 11, 2025

Some economists are forecasting a surge in investment driven by the bill's tax incentives (permanent rate cuts, restored expensing). To be sure, expensing does increase the after-tax return on new investments and will support overall growth in 2026. Expectations for the OBBB’s impact on 2026 GDP range from 0.4 to 1.1 percentage points. However, as we look under the hood, the transmission mechanism from tax cuts to organic GDP growth appears clogged, particularly in the current environment. We expect growth to land on the lower end of that range.

India’s New Labor Reforms Face Challenges at the State Level

December 9, 2025

India’s new labor codes mark a major reform effort, but state-level rollout will be uneven. Different political priorities, capacity gaps, and concerns over costs will slow uniform implementation.

System, interrupted – The Onyx 2026 Outlook

December 5, 2025

In 2026, countries will struggle to maintain old economic relationships while simultaneously needing to prepare for a new international system. This struggle will increase costs, sharpen risks, and complicate strategic decisions for companies, with government policy being a major source of this risk. Onyx expects the clash between old policy intentions and new geopolitical realities to become clearly visible in 2026, setting the stage for future drastic changes.

India's export policies advance amid rising trade barriers

December 2, 2025

India has expanded export-support measures via tax reimbursements, easier credit access and the new Export Promotion Mission (EPM). The EPM could strengthen competitiveness, but its impact hinges on clear guidelines and effective alignment with broader export-related reforms.

The Pfizer deal previews Trump’s industrial policy

October 3, 2025

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, tax cuts, and deregulation push were set to have ambiguous impacts on investment within the US. Recent agreements and reporting reveal a more comprehensive, if untested, industrial policy.

“Transshipment” may reshape access to the US market

August 19, 2025

Implementation of the Trump administration's 40% transshipment tariff remains unclear because the CBP has not defined what constitutes transshipment. How expansive the CBP’s definition of transshipment determines the level of disruption to existing manufacturing supply chains, particularly in Asia.

Thailand’s political landscape and competitiveness at risk amid Cambodia tensions

August 8, 2025

The July 2025 Thailand-Cambodia conflict has intensified political instability and triggered a labor shortage in Thailand, further undermining its competitiveness amid rising regional investment competition.

Is the end of IEEPA the beginning of a more effective Trump admin?

May 30, 2025

If Trump’s broad tariffs are blocked, it will almost certainly dampen the breadth and magnitude of tariffs but – crucially – it may well leave behind longer-lived and more effective approach.

The tariff lag: why April's tariffs signal an inflationary summer

May 22, 2025

The tariffs imposed by the US in April are expected to drive an increase in inflation starting in June to August period of 2025.

The Economic consequences of protectionism: more than just inflation

April 3, 2025

There are profound negative impacts of protectionist trade policies, including increased costs, supply chain disruptions, reduced innovation, inefficient resource allocation, and potential risks to the US dollar and fiscal stability.

Parsing Through Recent Key US Economic Data: Policy Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook

February 28, 2025

US growth is slowing, but at a manageable pace. January data had some one-off headwinds - February data will be a better indicator of fundamental growth.

January macro data in line with outlook but caution signs emerge

January 31, 2025

With a busy week for economic data and policy, we offer a recap of recent economic data and policy development, highlighting key metrics such as GDP growth, inflation, and overall consumer sentiment.

China: The long-awaited stimulus is here. What's next?

October 1, 2024

China has implemented stimulus measures, including cutting the reverse repo rate and reserve requirement ratio, and lowering existing mortgage rates. Will they be sufficient to help China reach its annual 5% growth target?