Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: business impacts and outlook under CBAM

October 3, 2024

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) aims to eliminate 99% of tariffs by 2030, increasing EU's access to Vietnam’s market. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may challenge the EVFTA's effectiveness by increasing export costs.

China: The long-awaited stimulus is here. What's next?

October 1, 2024

China has implemented stimulus measures, including cutting the reverse repo rate and reserve requirement ratio, and lowering existing mortgage rates. Will they be sufficient to help China reach its annual 5% growth target?

Another view of China’s deep involvement in global supply chains

September 12, 2024

Rhetoric on derisking trade from China is growing due to geopolitical tensions, but strong trade complementarity remains, highlighting China's crucial role in global supply chains.

"China Week" does not address key trade issues

September 9, 2024

The US House of Representatives has released a list of proposed China-focused legislation expected to come to a vote over the course of what Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) dubbed “China Week”.

Thailand's political dynamics and their impact on the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) development

September 3, 2024

Thailand’s political parties agree that significant development is required to capture the historic investment flowing into Southeast Asia but power struggles over the specific industries and geographies left the path forward unclear.

Increase in e-commerce goods from China prompts scrutiny in the US and Europe

August 15, 2024

Changes to de minimis rules and other restrictions on Chinese e-commerce companies, if successful, could help reduce strains in the air freight market, where e-commerce goods are taking ever more capacity across Asia outbound.

Walz VP pick indicates continuity in democratic approach to trade

August 9, 2024

By selecting Walz, Harris signals continuity with existing Biden-era trade policy including a focus on worker protections and environmental issues.

Republican trade policy platform sets the stage for negotiations

July 24, 2024

The platform as described would be a historic change in US trade policy and, by extension, macroeconomic policy.

Harris trade policy may diverge tactically despite continuity of Biden Administration approaches

July 23, 2024

If Harris becomes the Democratic nominee for the presidency her approach towards trade policy is likely to be a second-tier issue as domestic challenges will lead the electoral conversation as a key issues for voters, particularly immigration.

The Old is New Again: China’s Third Plenum Likely to Be Redux of Supply-Side Reform

July 12, 2024

Supply-side reform will likely continue to be the focal point for the Third Plenum, despite public calls from key figures for stimulating domestic demand.

UK and France Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

July 9, 2024

An overwhelming Labour majority puts the onus on center-left Prime Minister Keir Starmer to deliver on reforms to spur faster economic growth. In France, a hung parliament ends President Macron’s reform agenda and will make France largely ungovernable for the next three years. A weakened Macron may also quiet France’s voice in the EU but won’t drive massive changes to EU policy.

Scope of USG supply chain interests likely to be clarified by the end of 2024

June 27, 2024

These restrictions will take place as part of broader efforts to counter China as a strategic rival to the United States throughout the US government. Increases in tariffs and investment screening on a wider swathe of technologies is likely to impact firms that previously benefited from relatively open trade regimes for their products.

European Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

June 20, 2024

A more right-wing European Parliament will reduce the introduction of new sustainability initiatives, but won’t drive massive changes in EU policymaking.

Southeast Asian Leaders Unveil Ambitious Policies at 2024 Nikkei Forum

June 11, 2024

At the Nikkei Forum, Southeast Asian leaders shared insights on upcoming policy initiatives. Vietnam is prioritizing infrastructure and energy improvements. Malaysia aims to advance in the semiconductor value chain.

United States: IRA Faces Headwinds on Energy Transition

May 30, 2024

The IRA, in tandem with tightening restrictions on clean energy technologies sourced from China, has the potential shift the green technology value chain.