Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

TOPIC: NATIONAL SECURITY

System, interrupted – The Onyx 2026 Outlook

December 5, 2025

In 2026, countries will struggle to maintain old economic relationships while simultaneously needing to prepare for a new international system. This struggle will increase costs, sharpen risks, and complicate strategic decisions for companies, with government policy being a major source of this risk. Onyx expects the clash between old policy intentions and new geopolitical realities to become clearly visible in 2026, setting the stage for future drastic changes.

The Pfizer deal previews Trump’s industrial policy

October 3, 2025

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, tax cuts, and deregulation push were set to have ambiguous impacts on investment within the US. Recent agreements and reporting reveal a more comprehensive, if untested, industrial policy.

Countries caught in the middle of tariff negotiations with the US

June 26, 2025

The Trump administration is pressuring its trade partners to reduce their economic and tech dependences on China in exchange for lower tariffs. China warned it would retaliate against trading partners who hurt Chinese interests in attempts to “appease” the US.

US-EU: farther apart

February 21, 2025

A flurry of activity in the past week has brought US-EU relations to a historical low, with long-term consequences for trade, investment and security.