Vantage Point

Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.

India’s New Labor Reforms Face Challenges at the State Level

December 9, 2025

India’s new labor codes mark a major reform effort, but state-level rollout will be uneven. Different political priorities, capacity gaps, and concerns over costs will slow uniform implementation.

System, interrupted – The Onyx 2026 Outlook

December 5, 2025

In 2026, countries will struggle to maintain old economic relationships while simultaneously needing to prepare for a new international system. This struggle will increase costs, sharpen risks, and complicate strategic decisions for companies, with government policy being a major source of this risk. Onyx expects the clash between old policy intentions and new geopolitical realities to become clearly visible in 2026, setting the stage for future drastic changes.

India's export policies advance amid rising trade barriers

December 2, 2025

India has expanded export-support measures via tax reimbursements, easier credit access and the new Export Promotion Mission (EPM). The EPM could strengthen competitiveness, but its impact hinges on clear guidelines and effective alignment with broader export-related reforms.

The Pfizer deal previews Trump’s industrial policy

October 3, 2025

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, tax cuts, and deregulation push were set to have ambiguous impacts on investment within the US. Recent agreements and reporting reveal a more comprehensive, if untested, industrial policy.

“Transshipment” may reshape access to the US market

August 19, 2025

Implementation of the Trump administration's 40% transshipment tariff remains unclear because the CBP has not defined what constitutes transshipment. How expansive the CBP’s definition of transshipment determines the level of disruption to existing manufacturing supply chains, particularly in Asia.

Thailand’s political landscape and competitiveness at risk amid Cambodia tensions

August 8, 2025

The July 2025 Thailand-Cambodia conflict has intensified political instability and triggered a labor shortage in Thailand, further undermining its competitiveness amid rising regional investment competition.

China and the US prepare for the next round

July 31, 2025

China is expanding legal measures in response to broader U.S. trade restrictions, targeting firms that comply with U.S. policies. This strategy aims to shield its slowing economy while increasing risks for foreign companies caught between both sides. Despite some easing of tariffs, the U.S. and China remain on divergent paths, with the U.S. pushing for strategic decoupling and China reinforcing its deterrents.

Countries caught in the middle of tariff negotiations with the US

June 26, 2025

The Trump administration is pressuring its trade partners to reduce their economic and tech dependences on China in exchange for lower tariffs. China warned it would retaliate against trading partners who hurt Chinese interests in attempts to “appease” the US.

US proposals to address Chinese trade and sanctions evasion

June 20, 2025

US officials are intensifying efforts to curb Chinese trade and sanctions evasion through new legislation. The Axing Nonmarket Tariff Evasion Act (ANTE) scrutinizes investments by Chinese firms in third countries while a proposed subsidy rule imposes existing licensing requirements on firms who are majority-owned by sanctioned companies.

Is the end of IEEPA the beginning of a more effective Trump admin?

May 30, 2025

If Trump’s broad tariffs are blocked, it will almost certainly dampen the breadth and magnitude of tariffs but – crucially – it may well leave behind longer-lived and more effective approach.

The tariff lag: why April's tariffs signal an inflationary summer

May 22, 2025

The tariffs imposed by the US in April are expected to drive an increase in inflation starting in June to August period of 2025.

What the U.S. reciprocal tariff push means for South Asia

May 15, 2025

Reciprocal tariffs threaten South Asia’s critical labor-intensive exports to the U.S. by eroding cost advantages and deterring investment, prompting affected countries to negotiate concessions that carry significant economic and political risks.

China’s export shift from the US will reshape global markets unevenly

May 7, 2025

The US-China trade war has led to a redirection of Chinese exports to other markets, impacting advanced economies in core sectors, while posing longer-term competitiveness challenges for developing economies.

A vision of US foreign policy?

April 30, 2025

US President Donald Trump has started a fundamental rethink of US alliances in pursuit of a more economically beneficial alliance structure. At the same time, he looks for support to remake the global trading system and China's role in it.

Reciprocal tariffs hit home: what’s at stake for Southeast Asia?

April 17, 2025

The US reciprocal tariff policy is threatening Southeast Asia's competitive edge as a manufacturing hub, with the potential for increased production costs and factory closures.