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Vantage Point
Explore our latest perspectives on the global economy, geopolitics, and industry dynamics.
Thailand’s political landscape and competitiveness at risk amid Cambodia tensions
August 8, 2025
The July 2025 Thailand-Cambodia conflict has intensified political instability and triggered a labor shortage in Thailand, further undermining its competitiveness amid rising regional investment competition.
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China and the US prepare for the next round
July 31, 2025
China is expanding legal measures in response to broader U.S. trade restrictions, targeting firms that comply with U.S. policies. This strategy aims to shield its slowing economy while increasing risks for foreign companies caught between both sides. Despite some easing of tariffs, the U.S. and China remain on divergent paths, with the U.S. pushing for strategic decoupling and China reinforcing its deterrents.
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Countries caught in the middle of tariff negotiations with the US
June 26, 2025
The Trump administration is pressuring its trade partners to reduce their economic and tech dependences on China in exchange for lower tariffs. China warned it would retaliate against trading partners who hurt Chinese interests in attempts to “appease” the US.
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US proposals to address Chinese trade and sanctions evasion
June 20, 2025
US officials are intensifying efforts to curb Chinese trade and sanctions evasion through new legislation. The Axing Nonmarket Tariff Evasion Act (ANTE) scrutinizes investments by Chinese firms in third countries while a proposed subsidy rule imposes existing licensing requirements on firms who are majority-owned by sanctioned companies.
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Is the end of IEEPA the beginning of a more effective Trump admin?
May 30, 2025
If Trump’s broad tariffs are blocked, it will almost certainly dampen the breadth and magnitude of tariffs but – crucially – it may well leave behind longer-lived and more effective approach.
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The tariff lag: why April's tariffs signal an inflationary summer
May 22, 2025
The tariffs imposed by the US in April are expected to drive an increase in inflation starting in June to August period of 2025.
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What the U.S. reciprocal tariff push means for South Asia
May 15, 2025
Reciprocal tariffs threaten South Asia’s critical labor-intensive exports to the U.S. by eroding cost advantages and deterring investment, prompting affected countries to negotiate concessions that carry significant economic and political risks.
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China’s export shift from the US will reshape global markets unevenly
May 7, 2025
The US-China trade war has led to a redirection of Chinese exports to other markets, impacting advanced economies in core sectors, while posing longer-term competitiveness challenges for developing economies.
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A vision of US foreign policy?
April 30, 2025
US President Donald Trump has started a fundamental rethink of US alliances in pursuit of a more economically beneficial alliance structure. At the same time, he looks for support to remake the global trading system and China's role in it.
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Reciprocal tariffs hit home: what’s at stake for Southeast Asia?
April 17, 2025
The US reciprocal tariff policy is threatening Southeast Asia's competitive edge as a manufacturing hub, with the potential for increased production costs and factory closures.
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The Economic consequences of protectionism: more than just inflation
April 3, 2025
There are profound negative impacts of protectionist trade policies, including increased costs, supply chain disruptions, reduced innovation, inefficient resource allocation, and potential risks to the US dollar and fiscal stability.
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Southeast Asia's China policies are shifting
March 5, 2025
At the 2025 SCMP China Conference, Southeast Asian policymakers discussed the dual challenges of attracting Chinese investment while managing rising trade barriers and compliance complexities due to the US-China trade relationship.
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Parsing Through Recent Key US Economic Data: Policy Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook
February 28, 2025
US growth is slowing, but at a manageable pace. January data had some one-off headwinds - February data will be a better indicator of fundamental growth.
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US-EU: farther apart
February 21, 2025
A flurry of activity in the past week has brought US-EU relations to a historical low, with long-term consequences for trade, investment and security.
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China’s export pivot to developing countries will be increasingly challenged
February 13, 2025
China's pivot to developing markets faces increasing challenges from rising trade barriers and heightened scrutiny from the US and other regions.
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