2024 Midpoint Trade and Geopolitical Update

July 2024

Midyear update to key trade and geopolitical trends, with a focus on elections, risk management and assessing the long-term picture for supply chains.

2024 Midpoint Economic Update

July 2024

Midyear update to our outlook on global economic trends, particularly with respect to the US, the EU, and China.

The Old is New Again: China’s Third Plenum Likely to Be Redux of Supply-Side Reform

July 2024

China's Third Plenum is historically an important avenue to announce reform, but this session will likely see a doubling down on supply-side reforms.

UK and France Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

July 2024

National elections in the UK and France have resulted in changes to the composition of legislative power in each country.

Internationalization of Chinese companies

June 2024

A spike in Chinese exports is fueling concerns in advanced economies even as Chinese companies are investing abroad.

Scope of USG supply chain interests likely to be clarified by the end of 2024

June 2024

Commerce is set to release a comprehensive list of strategic technologies that will form the basis of future export control and tariff regimes, including updated restrictions on EVs and their components.

European Elections 2024: Results and Aftermath

June 2024

European Union Parliament elections concluded in early June, which resulted in a higher vote share for far-right parties, who will now hold a quarter of seats in the European Parliament.

Southeast Asian Leaders Unveil Ambitious Policies at 2024 Nikkei Forum

June 2024

At the Nikkei Forum, Southeast Asian leaders shared insights on upcoming policy initiatives, seeking to address key concerns of businesses in the region.

Southeast Asia-5 Future Capacity and Industry Specialization

June 2024

Supply chain diversification to Southeast Asia-5 countries prompts capacity concerns; focus on labor productivity and industry specialization emerge as key strategies.

United States: IRA Faces Headwinds on Energy Transition

May 2024

Disbursement of funds from the Inflation Reduction Act is underway, although faces challenges in transforming low carbon value chains and meeting its policy objectives.

Europe Elections, National Policy and US Relations

May 2024

With EU Parliament elections in June, national-level policy factors, and transatlantic relations with the US, Europe policy comes into focus for 2024-2025.

India's Elections and Investment Dynamics

May 2024

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party expected to secure the majority seats in upcoming parliamentary elections, India aims to become the leading manufacturer in Asia.

With EU elections, Russia and China relations come into focus

May 2024

As European Union voters select a new European Parliament, geopolitical pressures from Russia, China, and the US play a role.

Success of the CHIPS Act Faces Complex Geopolitical Conditions

May 2024

Analysis of the challenges that exist for this key piece of US industrial policy in rebuilding a strong US chip industry

Mexico’s Elections and the Future of Nearshoring

May 2024

With upcoming June elections, how will new leadership facilitate investment and prioritize the US-Mexico relationship?

Supply Chain Diversification to Southeast Asia

April 2024

Supply chain diversification to five key Southeast Asia nations is underway, but completely replacing China poses challenges.

SE Asia Attracts Investment but Faces Capacity Crunch

April 2024

Investment is shifting from China, creating pressure on manufacturing capacity and driving nations to increase labor productivity with industry specialization.

Macro Outlook April 2024

April 2024

Our global macro outlook update including forecasts for global growth and economic conditions in the US and European Union.

CBAM and Implications for Global Trade

April 2024

An overview of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its implications for global trade

Logistics and Warehousing in Europe After Brexit

March 2024

Brexit has influenced how firms are setting up their EU and UK production, operations, and location or expansion of warehouses based on the end market dynamics.

CHIPS and Science Act - Analysis of Impacts

March 2024

An overview and updated analysis of the CHIPS act that was passed in 2022 - how it aims to impact US industrial policy through investments in the semiconductor industry

Vietnam - Outlook for Manufacturing and Logistics Infrastructure

March 2024

Analyzing how strong investment flows are interacting with the manufacturing labor environment, and a review of the logistics infrastructure policies and planned development

South China Sea - Geopolitical Analysis and Scenarios

March 2024

An assessment of this maritime area, analyzing the geopolitical factors and potential escalation path for this key shipping corridor

Reducing Scope 3 Emissions

February 2024

Analysis of the tradeoffs and alternatives to meet Scope 3 goals, and how government policy is impacting strategic plans for global companies

China’s Property Sector Correction Weighs on Growth

February 2024

A deep correction to the housing market leads to additional reforms to unlock consumption and future economic growth

Indonesia 2024 Elections: Impact on Industrial and Climate Policies

February 2024

A preview of the upcoming elections, with policy implications for manufacturing, sourcing and environmental considerations

China Navigates Economic Challenges to Spur Growth

February 2024

Analysis of how China is using policy to overcome structural headwinds by investment in strategic emerging industries

Logistics Outlook 2024

January 2024

Assessing medium-term cost pressures along with logistics infrastructure by various countries, including India, Mexico and Vietnam

Electric Vehicle Automotive Market Outlook

January 2024

Our EV automotive outlook assesses competition, market share and industrial policy, along with geopolitical variables such as mining of critical minerals

Trajectory of Red Sea Crisis and Impact on Global Commerce

January 2024

Analysis of the ongoing disruption in the Red Sea, with Yemen's Houthis having initiated a series of attacks against shipments through the corridor

Supply Chain Implications of Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Elections

January 2024

Taiwan voters head to the polls to select a president amongst three candidates. Key election issues include cross-strait relations and strategies to boost weak economic growth.

Turning Point: Outlook for 2024

December 2023

Our outlook for 2024 assesses the global economic picture, supply chain considerations, and looming geopolitical risks.

Will the US revoke Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China?

December 2023

An analysis of the likelihood and implications of what removking PNTR with China would mean for multinational firms.

Automotive Outlook - The Road Ahead for Production and Demand

November 2023

Our automotive outlook assesses the key global production factors facing automakers and parts suppliers, amidst consumer demand uncertainties.

Chinese Auto Firms Follow Tesla to Mexico

July 2023

Auto and auto parts makers setting up nearer Tesla’s main EV market —North America —must navigate challenges to avoid U.S. barriers.

Globalization in 2023 [PODCAST]

June 2023

Fernanda Kroup, Vice President and Head of Onyx Strategic Insights, gives her take on how things are looking this year and how current trends are affecting logistics in 2023.

US readying additional trade and investment restrictions on China

May 2023

US policymakers are poised to implement at least nine restrictions on China in 2023 across six industries, ranging from telecoms to agriculture and oil and gas.

2023 China Outlook - Growth Faces Macro and Geopolitical Challenges

May 2023

Our China Outlook assesses how China’s leadership will attempt to manage long term vulnerabilities while undergoing a bumpy economic rebound from lockdowns in the previous year.

2023 Tech Outlook - The Messy Middle of Globalization

March 2023

Our technology outlook lays out our geopolitical and macroeconomic forecasts and long-term considerations for the technology industry in the year ahead.

2023 Global Outlook – A Year of Transitions

February 2023

With the first Onyx Global Outlook, you will find our geopolitical and macroeconomic forecasts for the year ahead, alternative scenarios, and long-term considerations.